Dwight Howard – #12, Orlando Magic

Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Scouting Report

Dwight Howard is somewhat of an enigma at this point of his career. Already, he’s the best defensive player in the league and he is one of the game’s most dominant offensive players. But at the age of 24, there is so, so much room to grow for Dwight.

As you know, Howard is the cream of the crop on the defensive side of the ball and his abilities alone have allowed for the Magic to rank in the upper echelon of team defenses. When you really think about who is on that team, it speaks volumes of how good Howard is individually. Granted individual players for Orlando do a better job within Stan Van Gundy’s system than they would with another team but the Magic were ranked third in overall defense last season with Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis as three of their five starters. None of those guys are reliable defenders and yet Howard has the Magic as the third best defensive team in the league.

Offensively, Superman is at his best on the move. Dwight was #1 last season in the pick and roll scoring 1.49 points per possession on the pick and roll. Over the past couple of seasons, Howard has come a long way when it comes to scoring on the block and has established a consistent hookshot from the block that he can go to when his spin to the basket for a dunk is cut off. Other than that, though, he doesn’t have a reliable move or a face-up jumper from eight or 10 feet that he can count on for a bucket. What’s amazing about that is, even with a very small offensive repertoire, Howard averaged 18.3 points per game last season on 61% shooting and probably would have had around 23 a contest if he had shot better than 59% from the free throw line.

Howard is basically the Rajon Rondo of big men. Can’t shoot free throws or score outside of the paint but unstoppable at the rim (creativity for Rondo, strength for Howard) while making up for it by being the best at something else (rebounding for Dwight, passing for Rajon). Both players are young and both can make tremendous improvements to their game. If Superman was to ever get a consistent shot he can go to when he’s not rolling to the rim and finishing on the pick and roll or ripping of a nastty spin move on the block for a jam, his potential is limitless.

The Magic have gotten to the NBA Finals and the Eastern Conference Finals and Howard’s performance in the post-season has been spectacular. During the 2009 post-season, Howard averaged 20 points and 15 rebounds on 60% shooting in 23 games. Hidden by LeBron James‘ ridiculous performance in the Eastern Conference Finals was an equally ridiculous performance, at least for a offensively challenged center, from Dwight. In six games against the Cavs, Howard averaged 26 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and a block a game on 65% shooting. In the Finals against the NBA’s top trio of post defenders, Dwight still managed to average 15 points, 15 rebounds, four blocks and two steals a game.

This past post-season, Dwight’s numbers had a slight decrease but were still strong. He averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds in 14 games and if you only looked and his numbers in the final two rounds of the playoffs (taking out the sweep against Charlotte in which Howard only averaged 27 minutes a game compared to 39 mpg for the remaining nine games because of foul trouble), Superman averaged 22 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks and a steal on 65% shooting.

One has to believe that those numbers will at the worst stay the same over the next few years and hopefully they will improve so long as Dwight does make some kind of change to his game, even it isn’t going from a terrible free throw shooter to a decent one or getting a face-up jumper. Maybe Howard adds a turnaround hook or a step through dunk and those looks start falling more often than his current shots do. As the best shot blocker and rebounder in the league all ready, those small additions might make him the most impossible player to go up against in the entire league.

Statistical Analysis

Advanced Stats

Obviously, the first thing that sticks out when looking at Dwight’s numbers is his jaw dropping defensive rating. At just 95 points surrendered per 100 possessions, Superman has been brilliant for the past two seasons. As I pointed out earlier, Dwight is the best defensive player in the game and almost every metric agrees with that assessment. Howard also leads the league in defensive winshares at 7.1 while ranking second in defensive and total rebounding percentages and fifth in block percentage. Superman finished with the most defensive rebounds, total rebounds, and blocks as well.

By reading the scouting report above you may come away with the idea that Dwight isn’t much of an offensive threat. If that is the perception you get, then I am sorry. Howard is a magnificent offensive talent and is one of the most efficient players in the entire NBA. Most people like to discuss what he doesn’t have and what he should look to add more than they like talking about what he does do offensive because what he does do isn’t very complex. He dunks the ball and makes a fair share of hookshots from the block. However, getting to the rim time after time is a skill and an accomplishment and shouldn’t be overlooked when assessing Dwight’s offensive abilities. Howard was tied for the league lead in true shooting percentage at 63% and was alone at the top of the efficient field goal percentage list with a 61.2% mark.

The negatives that come with Howard aren’t plentiful but there are some bad qualities that he possesses. Dwight was second in the league in turnovers last season behind Steve Nash. That spot is normally reserved for a guard or a ball dominating forward but not for a big man. High turnover numbers for a big man either means they have bad handles on entry passes or have poor guards getting him the ball. Dwight has had some problems in the past with his catches but the increased turnover rate can also be a bi product of losing Hedo Turkoglu, who had a good connection with Dwight. The other big problem with Howard is his free throw shooting. With his frame and with his speed and agility at six-foot-11, its not hard for Dwight to draw a foul. The issues arise when he is at the line, flicking the ball at the rim with a flawed form that consists of only his wrists. Superman took 816 free throws last season (second to Kevin Durant) but only converted on 483 of them. And as many times as he goes to the line, Dwight also puts a fair share of his opponents there too. Howard lead the league in personal fouls last season with 287.

Player Grade

Offense: 7 of 10 – Howard is going to dominate the pick and roll for a long time and is an extremely efficient scorer. He’s a big man, so nobody is expecting him to be knocking down 18-footers, but he does lose some points for having a limited offensive skillset. Still, he’s unstoppable when rolling to the rim and has a couple of nice post moves. He’s just 24 and he should get better as time goes on.

Defense: 10 of 10 – Despite having some questionable defenders at his side, Dwight has transformed the Magic into the third best defensive team league. Howard is the best defensive big man in the game and does the best job protecting the rim out of anybody else in the game. His defensive rating looks better and better each time I look at it, even though it doesn’t change. That 95 rating is just beautiful.

Overall: 17 out of 20 – The best center in the league and a top five player no doubt.